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Revealing the Secrets behind the Medal Table

Author(s)

Weixiang Wang, Yulong Ma, Panyin Tao, Yutong Yang, Qicai Liu

Affiliation(s)

Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China *These authors contributed equally to this work

Abstract

With the 2024 Paris Olympics concluded, this study predicts the 2028 Los Angeles Games’ medal standings, examines the “great coach” effect, and derives model-based insights, using historical data (athletes, events, past three Games’ medals) processed via Random Forest to forecast 2028 gold and total medals, assess post-2024 shifts, and estimate first-medal odds for non-winners, including host effects, while Bayesian Variable Point Detection (BVPD) quantifies the “great coach” effect on Brazilian soccer, British swimming, and Chinese volleyball, confirming its impact, revealing weak event-medal correlation, host influence, and coaching significance, guiding national Olympic committees in resource allocation and strategy.

Keywords

Random Forest; Bayesian Variable Point Detection; Logistic Regression; Great Coach Effect

References

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