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Exploration of Prediction Paths based on Enterprise Yield Rate - Taking Yiwu Small Commodity City's Cross-Border E-Commerce Ecological Layout as an Example

Author(s)

Jie Cui*

Affiliation(s)

Yu Ying High School, Hengshui, Hebei, China *Corresponding Author.

Abstract

This study takes Yiwu Small Commodity City's cross-border e-commerce ecological layout as the research object, and quantitatively analyzes the nonlinear impact mechanism of core factors such as transaction scale (GMV), user growth, and logistics costs on enterprise yield rate by constructing a multivariate linear regression and random forest hybrid prediction model. The empirical results show that the cross-border e-commerce transaction scale (elasticity coefficient 0.82) and user growth rate (β=0.09) are the core driving forces of revenue growth, while the marginal negative effect is significantly enhanced when the logistics cost accounts for more than 16% (β=-0.15); the random forest model further reveals the dynamic interactive effect of market share and competition intensity, indicating that ecological synergy can improve the sustainability of revenue by reducing resource allocation friction. Based on this, the study proposes an optimization path of "scale breakthrough-cost threshold-ecological synergy", providing a decision-making framework with both theoretical rigor and practical operability for the digital transformation of traditional trade clusters.

Keywords

Cross-Border E-commerce; Enterprise Profitability; Ecological Layout; Prediction Model; Yiwu Small Commodity City

References

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