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Consumption "Barometer": A Numerical "Tango" Between CCI, EEAI Indices and Household Expenditure

Author(s)

Shifeng Qian*, Haoran Zhao, Zongyang Wu

Affiliation(s)

School of Liangxin, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global economic integration and digital transformation, research on the behavioral patterns and influencing factors of household consumption – a core driver of economic growth – has become particularly significant. This study aims to delve into the impact of consumer confidence and e-commerce activity on household expenditure by constructing a standardized CCI and EEAI. It incorporates 19 indicators such as sub-item CPI data, urban and rural household income and expenditure from China's National Bureau of Statistics (2021-2025), along with 7 e-commerce metrics including online retail sales. Innovatively, this research proposes a hybrid modeling framework termed "PCA-ARIMAX-GBRT". By integrating PCA for dimensionality reduction, multiple lag regression models, ARIMAX for dynamic modeling, and the GBRT machine learning algorithm, it enables dynamic coupling analysis between macro-level psychological expectations and micro-level consumption behaviors.

Keywords

CCI; EEAI; PCA; ARIMAX; ML; Regression Model

References

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