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Wave-Like Fluctuations of School-Age Population and Forward-Looking Allocation of Basic Education Resources During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

Author(s)

Mengyao Zeng

Affiliation(s)

Henan Health Cadre College, Zhengzhou, Henan, China

Abstract

The 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030) marks a critical intersection of China’s demographic structural transformation and high-quality development of basic education. The school-age population will exhibit typical wave-like fluctuations, featuring phased and geographically concentrated rises and falls that pose new challenges to the dynamic, targeted allocation of basic education resources. Existing academic research mostly centers on static, balanced resource distribution, lacking forward-looking and systematic solutions to the temporal-spatial mismatch and supply-demand imbalance triggered by demographic shifts. These studies also fail to fully align with the policy guidelines and regional heterogeneity of the 15th Five-Year Plan era. Supported by demography, economics of education and public administration theories, this paper draws on historical school-age population statistics and demographic projections for the 15th Five-Year Plan period to systematically analyze the temporal-spatial patterns and inter-stage disparities of wave-like school-age population changes, and accurately identify core contradictions and practical hurdles in basic education resource allocation. The study finds that the population of primary school-aged children across China will peak in 2027 during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, while the junior high school-age population will witness stepped fluctuations. Significant agglomeration of school-age populations and widening urban-rural divides will lead to multiple problems including temporal-spatial mismatch of basic education resources, inter-regional inequity, imbalanced teacher staffing and irrational investment structures. In response, this paper constructs a forward-looking resource allocation framework featuring early warning and prediction, hierarchical optimization and long-term adaptive governance. It establishes a three-tier early warning mechanism for demographic and educational resource dynamics, designs differentiated resource allocation strategies tailored to varied regions, urban-rural zones and school stages, builds a system for dynamic teacher mobility and diversified investment guarantees, and proposes a transformation pathway from passive response to proactive forward planning, fragmented distribution to systematic coordination, and single-source investment to multi-stakeholder supply. Phased implementation schedules are also clarified. This research aims to resolve the supply-demand imbalance of basic education resources amid demographic volatility, and provides theoretical support and practical schemes for advancing high-quality basic education, promoting educational equity and boosting efficient resource utilization throughout the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Keywords

The 15th Five-Year Plan Period; School-Age Population; Wave-Like Fluctuations; Basic Education Resources; Forward-Looking Allocation

References

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